Monday 14 June 2010

Full time trading

So now my exams are out of the way, it is time to focus on trading pretty much full time. I have rather neglected this over the past few weeks and have spent the last day or so looking at how the systems have performed in my absence - not bad at all, though there was a sequence recently when the systems lost 3 days out of 4, which is quite unusual.

Mainly I have to devise a research programme for the gaps that I feel are still left in my trading approach. In particular, I need to come up with some sort of stop loss / reversal stop methodology. This has been in the back of my mind for the last few weeks. Under some scenarios, the systems sort of get trapped and can't make the best decision. For instance, suppose a market rises lots, consolidates and then drops a little. This could easily generate a sell signal. But suppose the market is actually going to rally another 100 points. Once the sell signal is actioned, it can take the systems many bars to realise that the market is rising again.

So ideally I would like to develop some sort of stop reversal, so that I am dropped back onto a recurring trend. Such a model should also work well when the market is stuck in a wide range, say 85 points up and down. The buys at the highs are quickly reversed, the sells at the lows likewise. Indeed, at such times, it is almost a counter-trend system.

The cost are those cases when the market moves up and down in a range that is just a little wider than the stop point. Then the systems will keep reversing back and forwards, zagging when the market is zigging and vice versa. So how expensive is this, and how much does it cost in total compared to the gains associated with stepping back into a trend? That is the question

I have a very rough idea what will be involved but the constant reversing stops can be confusing and I need to get clear that every scenario is covered off. So that will be this weeks research project while I trade and do some reading for my dissertation.

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