Tuesday 11 May 2010

Trading - optimism soons turns to pessimism

Yesterday - Monday - was a superb day for trading crude oil - yet another great result following last week's amazingly good results. The 25 point swing exit was perfect for today and produces 9 trades at +25, with just one loss of -19. In normal trading (rather than the wild markets of the last few days) this is perhaps as good as it gets. I also quite like see limit orders hit! The underlying trading system had a more volatile day - a couple of decent-sized whipsaws, which eliminated accumulated profit to date on at least one occasion during the day, but it finished at +100 or so for the day. So Monday was a great day, especially as there was only a tiny net move in the oil market across the whole day But Tuesday has been an entirely different matter. There was a really good trade signalled at 3:30 in the morning that would have produced a +80 result, but then, as I actually started following the markets, a series of multiple whipsaws in a slowly falling market really hit the results. Not a single trade can generate a favourable excursion of even +10, let alone the constant +25s of yesterday. And I get hit doubly hard by the doubled position I am currently running - most annoying Therefore all of yesterday's gains evaporated during the morning which has raised fears yet again about future success. This is partly a function of being woefully under capitalised so that everytime something bad happens I think it is a sign that I have deceived myself with the plans I currently have. But on the other hand, the FTSE is down 2% today, so Linda's investments have lost more than I have. And in the big picture, it isn't a problem - it is more that I was feeling a bit carried away by yesterday's success And I am also bothered by the constant inability to follow exactly the signals from the systems - which remains intensely annoying. Still too much second guessing going on. When will I finally realise that I am not as good as the systems I created? Luckily I have to stop following the markets as I am off to London to see Joanna Newsom tonight

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